Here’s an analysis …
Who’s at the peak
The United States leads the world when it comes to coronavirus infections and deaths. It has been reporting over 2 lakh cases daily for the last few weeks, with the average case count perilously close to its peak of nearly 3 lakh infections.
Similarly, the situation is also grim in UK, Brazil and Spain, all of which are reporting fresh infections that are close to the peak number.
The percent of the peak a country currently reports gives an idea of how far it is from containing the spread of the virus relative to the worst days of its outbreak.
In comparison, India’s current average daily case count stands at just 18% of its peak. If the declining trend holds, the percentage is expected to go down further.
Lesser deaths, more recoveries
India’s current recovery rate is at 96.5%, which is among the highest in the world.
When it comes to deaths, India has among the lowest case fatality ratio (CFR) vis-a-vis the worst-hit nations. The case fatality ratio is the percentage of deaths compared to the total number of cases.
India’s CFR currently stands at 1.4%. Meanwhile, Mexico has the highest CFR at 8.7%, way above others.
Lowest cases per million
India’s Covid-19 situation can also be understood through its average case count per million.
Despite being a densely populated nation, India has been reporting just over 7,500 cases per million people. The number is almost 1/10th compared to the US, which is averaging over 71,000 cases per million people.
And while India’s overall testing rate is lower compared to other nations, there has not been a major decline in testing since the peak in September. India was testing an average of 1 million people in the months of September and October, and the figures have now come down to 8 lakh per day. However, the proportionate fall in cases is much higher, indicating that the situation has been brought under control
No more peaks?
For long, experts were divided over whether India would witness another Covid wave after September.
But in December last year, several experts suggested that India may not witness another peak at all. They said that even if India does hit a new peak, it won’t be as bad as the first one.
This is evident from the constant decline in the case, or the flattening of the curve, over the last few months.
Meanwhile, countries like the UK and US continue to report record highs, with each peak worse than the previous one.
Both countries have already hit their third peak, with virus showing no signs of abating.